The full picture, ordered by what moved.

On June 12, 2025, Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner Flight AI171, bound for London Gatwick, crashed into a residential area seconds after takeoff from Ahmedabad's Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport. Of 242 people on board, 241 died — along with 19 people on the ground — bringing the total death toll to 260. It was the world's first fatal crash involving a 787 Dreamliner. One year on, India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) is expected to issue only an interim report, not the final findings families had hoped for. The preliminary report published a month after the crash noted that fuel supply to the engines was cut off just before impact, raising questions of pilot error or deliberate action, but offered no definitive explanation. Engine components were sent to the US for examination; investigators also traveled to France to analyze the engine management unit. Bloomberg has reported a final report could come within three months.

The crash is the deadliest aviation disaster involving a Boeing 787 and one of the worst air accidents in recent history. Families of victims — including 169 Indian nationals and 52 British nationals — remain without answers or adequate compensation a year later, with only £21,500 reportedly paid to the sole survivor. The unresolved cause, including an unconfirmed theory of deliberate pilot action, has serious implications for aviation safety protocols, Boeing's 787 program, pilot welfare policy, and passenger confidence in air travel globally. The delay in findings also prolongs uncertainty for India's aviation sector, already under strain from supply-chain problems and airspace restrictions.

India's AAIB is expected to release an interim report within days of the first anniversary. A final report, incorporating engine analysis results from tests conducted in the US, is anticipated within approximately three months, according to Bloomberg. The captain's father has petitioned India's Supreme Court for an independent investigation to explore causes beyond deliberate pilot action.

Under international aviation rules (ICAO Annex 13), a final accident report should be issued within one year "if possible." If not completed, an interim statement must be published on each anniversary. The pilot suicide theory draws comparisons to Germanwings Flight 9525 in 2015, where a co-pilot deliberately crashed the aircraft into the French Alps, killing all 150 people on board — a case that reshaped mental health screening requirements for pilots globally. Air India was privatized and returned to the Tata Group in 2022 and was in the midst of a major post-privatization turnaround at the time of the crash.

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President Trump announced on Truth Social that the US had called off planned strikes on Iran after claiming a deal was close and approved at the highest levels of Iranian leadership, with multiple regional powers (Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, and others) listed as parties. Trump said a signing ceremony could take place in Europe over the coming weekend. Iran's foreign ministry rejected this, saying Trump's statements were 'speculation,' that no final agreement had been reached, and that the US had repeatedly changed its positions during negotiations. Analysts cautioned that Trump's public statements are partly aimed at pressuring Iran and influencing oil markets. Direct US-Iran talks collapsed in Islamabad in April, but indirect negotiations through Pakistani and Qatari mediators have continued. The core US demand is that Iran commit to never developing or purchasing nuclear weapons. A deal at this stage would not be a final peace agreement but a framework to extend the existing ceasefire while deeper negotiations continue.

The US and Iran have been in an active war since late February 2026, with exchanges of fire as recently as this week. The conflict has produced what analysts describe as the worst energy crisis in modern history, given Iran's control of Kharg Island — which processes 90% of Iran's crude oil exports — and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. A genuine ceasefire deal would have immediate consequences for global oil prices and supply, while failure risks further military escalation between two nuclear-relevant powers in a strategically critical region. The gap between Trump's public declarations and Iran's denials signals that the path to a durable agreement remains uncertain.

Vice President JD Vance, who brokered the original ceasefire in Islamabad, is expected to lead any formal signing ceremony. Qatar and Pakistan remain active as mediators. A G7 summit in the French Alps this weekend could provide a diplomatic backdrop for further announcements. However, Iran's public denials mean any ceremony is not confirmed.

The US withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018. Since then, Iran has accumulated roughly 440kg of uranium enriched to 60% — well above civilian energy levels and closer to weapons-grade. The current conflict began in late February 2026 when the US and Israel struck Iran. Iran's supreme leader was recently identified in reports as Mojtaba Khamenei, suggesting a leadership transition from Ali Khamenei.

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Since the outbreak was declared on May 15, 2026, Ebola has spread across Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu provinces in northeastern DR Congo, with 676 confirmed cases, 119 suspected cases, and 136 deaths. The WHO reports the virus is now spreading locally within newly affected communities — not just through travel from known hotspots — including Kpanga, a crowded displacement camp in Ituri province where the first camp-related deaths occurred on May 31 and June 1. Isolation bed capacity is far below what is needed, contact tracing remains insufficient, and full surveillance coverage has not been established. The WHO warns the true scale of the outbreak is likely larger than currently detected.

The Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccines or treatments, making containment through isolation and tracing the only available tools — both of which remain inadequate. Displacement camps, where hundreds of people can share a single toilet, create conditions for rapid spread and panic-driven movement that could carry the virus well beyond known contact networks. The outbreak is further complicated by active armed conflict in the region, which limits government access and has destroyed much of the local health infrastructure. Neighbouring Uganda has already recorded 19 cases and 2 deaths. If the outbreak is not brought under control, it risks becoming a large-scale humanitarian and regional health emergency.

The WHO is scaling up surveillance and calling for more isolation capacity. If camp transmission is not contained quickly, health authorities and aid agencies warn that infected or exposed individuals may flee the camps and seed new chains of transmission across a wider geographic area, including potentially into Uganda.

The Bundibugyo ebolavirus is one of six known Ebola species. Unlike the more familiar Zaire strain — which caused the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic — no WHO-approved vaccine or therapeutic exists for Bundibugyo. DR Congo has experienced more Ebola outbreaks than any other country, but most previous outbreaks involved the Zaire strain, for which effective vaccines are available. Ituri and the Kivu provinces have been conflict zones for decades, hosting large internally displaced populations in camps that present serious infection-control challenges.

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Approximately 1,500 Indonesian university students gathered in Jakarta on June 12, 2026, under the banner 'Heading to Bankrupt Indonesia.' Their five key demands included reversing a 32% fuel price hike introduced this week, lowering food prices, cutting what they called wasteful welfare spending — including Prabowo's $15bn/year free meals programme — and ending the military's growing role in civilian government. Around 6,000 police and soldiers were deployed, and scuffles broke out at barricades when some protesters were blocked from joining the march.

Indonesia is Southeast Asia's largest economy and a major emerging market. The rupiah has fallen to a historic low of 18,000 to the dollar — down from 16,000 in March — driven partly by global supply chain disruptions tied to the US-Israel conflict with Iran. A 32% fuel price spike directly raises transport and food costs for millions of ordinary Indonesians. The corruption probe into the free meals programme, which led to the firing of its director, has eroded public trust in fiscal management. Separately, the widening of the military's role in civilian affairs raises democratic governance concerns in a country that only transitioned from military rule in 1998. Indonesia's last major protest wave, in August 2025, ended with at least 13 deaths in clashes with security forces.

With the rupiah at historic lows and fuel prices freshly hiked, further cost-of-living pressure on Indonesian households is likely in the near term. The government has not signalled any intent to reverse the fuel price increase or scale back the free meals programme, making sustained or escalating protests plausible based on the pattern seen in August 2025.

Indonesia imports significant volumes of fuel and food, making it highly sensitive to currency depreciation and global commodity shocks. President Prabowo Subianto, who took office in late 2024, is a former military general. His administration has expanded military roles in areas like food distribution and local governance, which critics argue blurs the civil-military boundary established after the fall of Suharto's authoritarian regime in 1998.

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President Trump announced on Thursday that he called off planned US strikes against Iran and declared a peace settlement was reached, 'subject to finalisation of documents.' Iran's Foreign Ministry did not confirm a deal but said a memorandum of understanding is 'under consideration.' The announcement sent the S&P 500 up 1.8%, the Nasdaq up 2.5%, and the Dow up 1.9% — the biggest single-day gain since April. The rally extended into Asia-Pacific on Friday, with South Korea's Kospi surging over 8%, Japan's Nikkei rising up to 4%, Taiwan's TAIEX gaining 2.4%, and Australia's ASX 200 up 1.8%. Brent crude oil fell roughly 1% to below $89.50 a barrel on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz — which carries about one-fifth of global energy supplies in peacetime — could reopen to normal traffic.

A US-Iran deal, if finalised, would reduce one of the most acute geopolitical risks currently affecting global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for world oil supply, and any sustained closure or conflict there raises fuel costs for consumers and businesses worldwide. The sharp market gains reflect how heavily investors had priced in conflict risk. A genuine resolution would ease inflationary pressure from energy prices and reduce the threat of a broader regional war.

Analysts at ANZ Bank caution that sustained market gains depend on an actual signed deal and a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not yet publicly confirmed the terms, and Trump said finalisation of documents is still pending — leaving meaningful uncertainty about whether a durable agreement will materialise.

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is the world's most important oil transit route. Roughly 20% of global oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas passes through it. Iran has historically threatened to close the strait during periods of US-Iran tension, which would cause an immediate spike in global energy prices.

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SpaceX is listing on US public markets at approximately $135 per share, implying a $1.8 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in history. The company is oversubscribed by up to four times its planned offering, with roughly $70 billion in orders. However, Morningstar analysts value SpaceX at just $63 per share, a 53% discount to the IPO price. Nasdaq changed its rules earlier in May to allow mega-cap companies like SpaceX to enter its index after just 15 trading days, bypassing the traditional seasoning period designed to let a stock prove its value. The S&P 500 did not change its rules. SpaceX also posted a $4.9 billion net loss in its most recent fiscal year, despite $18 billion in revenue. OpenAI and Anthropic have both confidentially filed for their own IPOs, each targeting roughly $1 trillion valuations.

Because index funds are contractually obligated to hold stocks in proportion to their weight in an index, passive investors — including millions of people with pension plans, 401(k)s, and university endowments — may have no choice but to gain exposure to SpaceX at its IPO price, regardless of whether they consider it fairly valued. The abbreviated 15-day Nasdaq inclusion window leaves little time to assess how the stock actually trades. Compounding this, SpaceX's governance structure grants Musk up to 85% of voting power despite owning 42% of equity, effectively making him impossible to remove without his own consent — a structure that major pension funds in New York and California have publicly criticized. If the valuation fails to hold, losses would ripple through pension funds serving teachers, firefighters, police officers, and university endowments.

OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to follow SpaceX to public markets soon, each targeting valuations around $1 trillion. The Nasdaq rule change that benefits SpaceX would apply to these listings as well, meaning similar dynamics — fast index inclusion and limited seasoning — could affect passive investors again in short succession.

In a normal IPO, companies must demonstrate sustained profitability before joining major indices like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100. This 'seasoning period' protects passive investors by ensuring a new stock has been tested by the market. SpaceX lobbied successfully for a Nasdaq rule waiver, compressing this window to 15 trading days. Index fund managers cannot simply opt out of holding a stock once it enters the index — they are contractually bound to track the index composition.

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The Seoul Central District Court sentenced former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to 30 years in prison on June 12, 2026, for sending military drones into North Korea in October 2024. Prosecutors argued the operation — which Pyongyang said involved dropping propaganda leaflets — was designed to manufacture wartime conditions that would justify his short-lived martial law declaration in December 2024. The drone flights heightened military tensions on the Korean Peninsula at the time. Yoon, who denied wrongdoing, is already in custody and can appeal. The verdict is separate from a life sentence handed down in February 2026 after he was found guilty of leading an insurrection tied to the martial law attempt.

The sentencing marks an extraordinary fall for a sitting head of state who was once South Korea's top prosecutor. Taken together with his life sentence for insurrection, Yoon now faces multiple decades of imprisonment for actions that destabilised one of Asia's largest democracies and ratcheted up tensions with nuclear-armed North Korea. The case sets a significant legal precedent for executive accountability in South Korea and underscores how inter-Korean military provocations — including drone operations — remain a serious flashpoint with the potential to trigger broader conflict.

Yoon's lawyers have indicated they will appeal Friday's lower court ruling. Separately, inter-Korean relations remain tense: North Korea has reverted to calling South Korea its 'most hostile' enemy after brief signals of potential dialogue earlier in 2026.

Yoon declared martial law in December 2024, a move that shocked South Korea and was swiftly overturned by the National Assembly. He was subsequently impeached, and the Constitutional Court upheld his removal from office. A snap election followed, won by liberal President Lee Jae Myung. North and South Korea remain technically at war since the 1950–53 Korean War ended only in an armistice. Both sides have used balloon and drone operations across the border as tools of psychological pressure.

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President Trump publicly stated that the United States and Iran have agreed to a deal and are in the process of finalising the formal documents. Trump described the agreement as a 'great settlement' that would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. No details of the terms have been officially published.

A US-Iran nuclear agreement would be one of the most consequential diplomatic developments in years. Iran's nuclear programme has been a major source of regional instability and a flashpoint for potential conflict involving Israel, Gulf states, and Western powers. A verified deal could reduce the risk of military escalation, ease sanctions pressure on Iran, and affect global oil markets. However, until documents are signed and independently verified, significant uncertainty remains.

Both governments are said to be finalising documentation. Any formal deal would likely require verification mechanisms by international bodies such as the IAEA, and could face political resistance in both the US Congress and Iran's internal power structures.

Iran's nuclear programme has been under international scrutiny for decades. A previous multilateral agreement — the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — was abandoned by the US under Trump's first term in 2018, after which Iran progressively expanded its uranium enrichment. Subsequent efforts to revive the deal under the Biden administration stalled. Iran is currently assessed to be enriching uranium at near-weapons-grade levels.

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Amnesty International and Oxfam independently released reports in June 2026 documenting a significant rise in state-backed Israeli settler violence across the occupied West Bank over the past three years. Both organizations warn that the escalation is accelerating the displacement of Palestinian residents from their land and homes.

Displacement of civilian populations in an occupied territory raises serious questions under international humanitarian law. When two major human rights organizations simultaneously document the same trend with independent research, it signals a systemic pattern rather than isolated incidents. Continued displacement reshapes the demographic and political landscape of the West Bank, with long-term consequences for any future resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

With two prominent international human rights bodies now on record with documented findings, there is likely to increase pressure on governments and international bodies — including the UN and the International Criminal Court — to respond formally. Whether that translates into concrete action remains uncertain.

The West Bank has been under Israeli military occupation since 1967. Israeli settlements — civilian communities built on occupied land — are considered illegal under international law by most countries and the UN, though Israel disputes this. Settler violence against Palestinian communities has been a recurring issue, but rights groups have reported a sharp increase since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023.

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President Trump called off a planned third day of US airstrikes against Iran on June 12, 2026, stating that a deal with Tehran is close to finalisation and that the signing details will be announced soon. The halt comes after two consecutive days of US strikes and retaliatory missile barrages by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting US military bases in the region. Earlier the same day, Trump had threatened further escalation, including taking Iran's Kharg Island and targeting other oil infrastructure.

An active military exchange between the US and Iran carries major risks for global oil supply, regional stability, and the safety of US military personnel and civilians across the Middle East. A halt in strikes and a potential deal — if it holds — could de-escalate one of the most serious US-Iran confrontations in decades. However, the situation remains fluid and unconfirmed details of any agreement could shift rapidly.

Trump indicated a formal signing of a deal is imminent, with a time and place to be announced. Whether Iran publicly confirms the same terms will be a key indicator of whether the diplomatic pause holds.

Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran's crude oil exports. Any strike on it would significantly disrupt global oil supply. A ceasefire framework between Washington and Tehran established in April 2026 had been under increasing strain in the lead-up to this exchange of strikes and counter-strikes.

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Africa's population stands at 1.6 billion and is projected by the UN to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, making it the world's fastest-growing region. By 2040, its working-age population is expected to exceed that of India and China combined. Urbanisation is accelerating — from 44% today to over 60% by 2050. Yet the structural conditions required to convert demographic scale into growth — effective governance, agricultural reform, manufacturing capacity, and trade integration — remain largely underdeveloped. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), designed to create a single market of 1.4 billion people and $3.4 trillion in GDP, exists on paper but faces uneven implementation. Manufacturing accounts for only 10–12% of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP, well below the 20%+ typical of industrialised economies. Nearly half of Africa's population lives in countries where governance has deteriorated over the past decade, according to the 2024 Ibrahim Index.

The trajectory of Africa's demographic growth will shape global labour markets, migration patterns, commodity demand, and geopolitical influence for decades. If governance and investment keep pace, Africa becomes one of the world's largest consumer and production bases — a major economic rebalancing. If they don't, the same numbers translate into rising unemployment, urban strain, food insecurity, and political instability with spillover effects far beyond the continent. For average people globally, the outcome affects everything from the cost of manufactured goods and food to migration pressure and international aid burdens.

Urban populations will continue growing faster than most governments can finance infrastructure for them. The AfCFTA's implementation timeline and the pace of foreign direct investment into manufacturing — particularly in labour-intensive sectors — will be key indicators of whether the demographic dividend materialises. Countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda, which have pursued sustained industrial policy, are being watched as early tests of the model.

The 'demographic dividend' is the economic boost that can occur when a large share of a population is of working age — as happened in East Asia in the latter half of the 20th century. It is not automatic: it requires investment in education, healthcare, and job creation. Africa is entering this window now, but many economists argue the institutional prerequisites are not yet in place. The AfCFTA, launched in 2021, is the world's largest free trade area by number of countries, but tariff removal and cross-border logistics remain inconsistent across member states.

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