Arab parties may hold balance of power in Israel's 2026 general election
With neither the incumbent right-wing bloc nor the opposition likely to secure a majority, Arab-led parties could become kingmakers in the October 27 election.
What happened
Israel is heading toward a general election on October 27, 2026, to elect a 120-seat Knesset. Current polling suggests a deadlock between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition and the 'Change Bloc' led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot. Because neither side is projected to reach the 61-seat threshold for a majority, the Arab-led parties—specifically the Joint List and Ra'am—could hold the critical balance of power needed to form a government.
Why it matters
The outcome will determine the trajectory of Israel's internal policies and its approach to the Palestinian territories. A continued Netanyahu government may accelerate West Bank settlement expansion and judicial reforms. Conversely, a shift in power could lead to a crackdown on settler violence or changes in budget allocations for Arab-Israeli communities. However, many leading Jewish opposition figures have ruled out partnering with Arab parties, which could lead to a prolonged political stalemate or repeated elections.
What could happen next
Exit polls will be released on the evening of October 27, with official results expected by November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then invite the candidate most likely to form a coalition to attempt to build a majority government.
Context
The election follows the October 7, 2023 attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. It takes place against a backdrop of record-high settler violence in the West Bank and intense domestic debate over the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews and the independence of the judiciary.